Following the midweek LIPAFC, Louisville City returns home to take on a brand-new opponent. Sacramento Republic will make their first trip to Louisville. An additional twist to this fresh matchup is that Sac Republic will be participating in the US Open Cup Finals only days later. That is certainly an interesting game-planning wrinkle that both teams will have to factor in. Will the Republic interfere with LouCity’s chase for their first regular season title, or will Louisville assert their dominance over this Western playoff contender?
Sacramento is somewhat comparable to Miami, who recently handed LouCity a rare loss. They are 16th in goals scored (1.3) and 6th for goals allowed (1.0). Sac is 20th in possession (48.2%) which is right next to MIA. I’m already getting scary early goal concession and park the bus vibes. It is, however, a home match so that certainly plays in LouCity’s favor as they have done very well in Butchertown. With that said, they are still an opponent that deserves respect. They’ve not essentially locked up a playoff spot and gotten to the USOC Finals on accident.
Threats to keep an eye on include Rodrigo López, Jack Gurr, and Douglas Martinez. López is one of the better goal sorcerers on his team (four) but it’s his ability to create that makes him the most dangerous. He leads his sides with 50 chances created and eight big chances. He also has the team high in assists (seven) and player rating (7.67). He is a savvy veteran who will be a problem even against our solid defense. Gurr, formerly part of the ATL United system and Aberdeen, is a nice complement to López. He has three assists (2nd), 32 chances (2nd), and three big chances (3rd). Should too much focus be on López, he could break out. And finally, there is Martinez, a former member of the Baby Bulls, RSL, and San Diego. He has five goals (T-1st), two assists, and 0.32 goals per match (2nd).
Louisville has a 54% chance to pull out a win according to FiveThirtyEight with the visitors only having a 19% chance. I think this is a bit disrespectful to the visitors, however, I still believe that it’s LouCity’s to lose. City is one of, if not the best, in the league, and just about any other team is beatable in Lynn Family Stadium. With the Open Cup Final looming, it will be interesting to see what players, if any, they hold back or limit for that match. Morados is coming off short rest, so that helps Sac a bit. Should be a very interesting game!
Parting Thoughts
Want to do a little more reading on LouCity? I suggest the following:
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