Next Match – Louisville City vs Loudoun United – 09/17/2022
After two matches in quick succession on the road, Louisville City is finally awarded a full week break followed by a return to Lynn Family Stadium. Having survived the defensive battle against the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, LouCity will be taking on DC United’s USL affiliate, Loudoun United. These two last faced off in April with Louisville claiming victory. Loudoun didn’t start the 2022 season too badly however, they have fallen towards the bottom of the pecking order with their most recent match, a whopping 4-0 defeat to Sac Republic. The playoffs are not in the cards for them, however, they will be playing for pride and a chance to disrupt LouCity’s push for first.
With 1.1 goals for per match (25th) and 2.0 goals against per match (23rd), Loudoun hasn’t exactly proven to be a serious threat to most teams. They do pass well (3rd for accurate passes) and have averaged the 9th most average possession (51.1%) yet they struggle to translate that into points. Despite the 13th best shots on target per match (4.3), they rank 25th for shots to goals, only scoring on every 10.45 shots. Considering that Louisville only allows 8.1 shots per match (2nd), things don’t look great for the VA team heading to KY.
It’s been a rotating cast of characters for the MLS affiliate, but there have been a few standouts and points of stability. Keep an eye on Tyler Freeman, Skage Simonsen, and Jacob Greene. Freeman, a product of the same KC system that gave us Matiti Mushagalusa and Wilson Harris, is Loudoun’s leading goal scorer with six goals at a rate of 0.59 a match (1st). He registers 3.6 shots per match (1st) and 1.6 shots on target (1st). Simonsen has four assists (1st), 25 chances created (3rd), and five big chances (3rd). He also has two goals and the 3rd highest shots and shots on target culminating in 3rd highest player rating of 6.93. Greene has been part of the DC system since 2019 and has played all but one match this season. Although he has not amassed many goals/assists, he has the team’s second most chances and big chances with 27 and six, respectively.
There is only a 7% chance Loudoun wins according to FiveThirtyEight and a 77% chance LouCity wins at home. Looking at the two teams’ stats is hard to disagree with that assessment. With that said, LouCity can not afford to drop these points, so underestimating anyone at this point in the game could be disastrous for their effort to not only secure first in the East but the regular season title as well. Hopefully, with a much-needed rest period and a few recently dropped points fueling the motivational fires, Louisville will put on a quality show for the home fans.
Want to do a little more reading on LouCity? I suggest the following:
How’s It Going? Part 3 - An Assessment Of Louisville City’s 2022 Season-To-Date
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