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Next Match – Louisville City vs FC Tulsa – 08/14/2021


Last Saturday, Louisville City secured another win against Sporting KC2, which makes them unbeaten in their last six matches. If it were not for the draw against the Switchbacks, it would have been six straight wins. The last loss LouCity endured was at FC Tulsa, who is facing Louisville for the first time in Lynn Family Stadium this Saturday. With the series between the two clubs tied at one apiece, this match can help to provide more clarity on who is the better squad (head-to-head, at least).


Tulsa is third in the Central, however, they do not have an insurmountable lead. The Roughnecks lost four straight before securing a win against Birmingham last week to stop the slide. With 22 points after 16 games, FiveThirtyEight is giving them a 58% chance to secure a playoff spot closely followed by Indy Eleven at 55%, and Memphis 901 at 46%. They will need several big wins, such as beating City, to help put them in a more comfortable position.


Statistically, they have dropped off a bit since the last meeting. They are averaging 1.6 goals per match (11th), 4.3 shots on target per match (14th), and conceding 1.8 goals per match (26th). Their offense, their major strength, has cooled off as of late. And if you find any value in the “good-luck” matrix below, there is a case to be made that they are a “bad” team that has gotten “lucky.” Despite this, they have done plenty to warrant respect and LouCity needs to be prepared to face the best version of Tulsa. With a habit of conceding (particularly late), this is a team that can exploit that.

So, who are their key players? Rodrigo Da Costa has a team-leading eight goals, four assists, an average player rating of 7.48, and 1.9 key passes per match. Quite a few important categories are all led by one individual. A huge part of their attack. Joaquin Rivas is another noteworthy contributor with five goals and an average player rating of 7.23. The Brazilian Marlon is also worth a mention, with four goals, a 7.34 player rating, and 0.9 shots on target per match (2nd).


While this squad certainly has potential (particularly on attack), it will be a big ask for them to leave Kentucky with any points. FiveThirtyEight is giving LouCity a 62% chance to win, with Tulsa only given a 16% chance to secure all three points. Louisville will be looking for a little revenge from the last outing, and playing at home will help in the cause. With the squad in good form, it’s Morados’ to lose.


Parting Thoughts

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