An exhilarating road win against SKC2 last weekend has Louisville City second in the Central Division down two points to Birmingham Legion. Fortunately, City has a game in hand. Their next match is back to Tulsa seeking yet another win. The last match was a bit chaotic but played out in LouCity’s favor. Can Louisville see off the Roughnecks once more in their own home?
FC Tulsa, who sits third in the Central Division, is the team for neutral fans. Goals abound. They score 1.7 per match (6th overall) while allowing 1.9 per match (28th overall). While their “big chances created” count isn’t anything to write home about (11, 24th overall), they do get off 4.5 shots on target per match, good for 11th in the league. Interestingly enough their xG for doesn’t align well with their actual goals but their xG against is much closer to the mark. Possession isn’t much of their strong suit either, averaging less than 50%. FiveThirtyEight is currently giving them a 65% chance to make the playoffs which tracks with their current performance provided they continue the offensive output to counterbalance the subpar defense.
Joaquin Rivas, Darío Suárez, and Rodrigo Da Costa, much like the last match preview, are their players to watch. Rivas has five goals (tied for 8th overall) and a player rating of 7.47. Da Costa, also with five goals, has supplied three assists, 15 created chances (tied 28th), and a team-leading 7.58 player rating. Worth noting that Da Costa scored in the last TULvLOU match. Suárez has four goals, two assists (one of which was in the last TULvLOU match), and an average rating of 7.33. These three carry the lion’s share of their team's offensive output.
FiveThirtyEight is giving LouCity a 46% chance to win and FC Tulsa a 28% chance. A slight bump in City’s favor from last time. The Roughnecks will have every reason to go for all three given they are at home and their spot in the playoffs is far from a sure thing. City, meanwhile, needs to use this opportunity to keep pace with the Legion and eventually take the top spot. They got it done last time, there is no reason they shouldn’t be able to do it again.
Parting Thoughts
If you have not done so already, check out my piece on the academy and injection of youth the first team could see sooner than later. I'm biased but I think it's fun!
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